Why the RPI is worthless!

I have been a big fan of the RPI in the past as it can be a good barometer of how one team compares to another. However, the RPI is beginning to be useless when judging and coparing teams. I am going to look at teams that according to ESPN are on the "bubble." I am only going to look at teams in the mid-majors as I think these teams are the best evidence of how bad the RPI system has become.

Lets begin by looking at three teams from the MVC and the write-up that espn.com has on them in their bubble watch page:

Should be in:
Creighton [18-10 (12-5), RPI: 30, SOS: 29] The Bluejays have to come out of the lock category now after losing at Illinois State on Tuesday. I still think they'll get there, but with a nonconference slate devoid of very much to brag about, this makes the finale at home against Wichita State extremely important. The committee left out Missouri State last season after a 12-6 Valley finish, so it can happen. Creighton swept both Mo-State and Bradley, if that comes into play.

Work left to do:
Missouri State [19-9 (11-6), RPI: 32, SOS: 34] Very critical road win at Wichita State should help the computer numbers and creates some incredibly important separation from Bradley in the standings. The Bears should handle Drake in the season finale to get to 12-6. They were swept by Creighton, but swept Bradley and are a game ahead of the Braves (and have the marquee win over Wisconsin), so they're definitively third in the pecking order right now, in my opinion. Mo-State will need to win its quarterfinal game to feel better about things, but it's looking much better than it did 24 hours ago.

Bradley [18-11 (9-8), RPI: 39, SOS: 22] As big as Saturday was for the Braves, Tuesday was that bad. Losing at home to UNI probably condemns the Braves to the fourth spot in the Valley pecking order and I don't know if this league is getting four this season. The season-opening 20-point W over DePaul has lost punch and the Braves lost by 29 at Michigan State.

Looking at the RPI's of these three schools you see that they are very good RPI's...all below 40. Makes you think that these teams have great resumes right? Well you be the judge:

Creighton has beaten the following "good" teams: Xavier, Missouri St (twice), and Bradley (twice)...they have lost to the following teams: Nebraska, Dayton, Fresno St, Hawaii, Indiana St, Wichita St, Southern Ill (twice)...I will stop here! Lets throw out the Missouri St and Bradley wins because...well because I am including them in this article as well...That leaves Xavier as the only decent team they have beaten...Yet they have an RPI of 30 and a SOS of 29?? Read on to find out why...

Missouri State has beaten the following "good" teams: Wisconsin, Santa Clara, Bradley (twice), and Wichita St (twice)...They have lost to the following: Oklahoma St, Saint Louis, Creighton (twice), S. Illinois (twice), N. Iowa, Evansville, and Winthrop...Once again we will throw out Bradley and Wichita St and that leaves Wisconsin and Santa Clara as the only two "good" wins...Yet their RPI is 32 and SOS is 34?

I will skip Bradley because they lost to both teams above twice! If they can't beat them then how can they get in?

Now, the question to ask here is: how can these teams have such a high RPI and SOS when it appears they are not beating anyone? The answer is simple...because they play the likes of Wisconsin, Oklahoma St, Wichita St, Nebraska, and Xavier...the RPI is a formula that also takes into account the teams that these teams played. So, if you play a Wisconsin and beat them and then Wisconsin beats an Ohio State it makes your RPI go up. In other words, you just need to play one or two great teams and then hope they play three or four great teams and you are golden.

It is hard for me to figure out just how Creighton can have such a high RPI except that they beat Missouri St who beat Wisconsin. So, Creighton beat Wisconsin by association? This means that because Syracuse beat Marquette and Marquette beat Duke that Syracuse beat Duke?? From what I see, all the Orange needed to do was beat Wichita St or Oklahoma St and their RPI would be in the 30's. Because from what I see, all you have to do is beat someone who beat someone else who was in the top 10. I guess Creighton and Missouri St are winners by association according to the RPI.

Just for comparison here is what the Orange has done:
Beat the following "good" teams Marquette, Villanova, Hofstra, Holy Cross, (if the teams above can have Bradley as good wins then the Orange get Hoftsra and Holy Cross), and Depaul...Bad losses: every loss hurt! Win just one against Wichita St, Oklahoma St, Pitt, or Drexel and its a different story!

GO 'CUSE!!