Hope everyone is enjoying the big win the other night and getting ready for Saturday!
Just thought I would update my record on my predictions from a couple weeks ago...You can find the post in my archives to the left.
My record is now 18-4 after the Pitt/WV game last night. My final Big East standings are looking very good as well. Just a little update.
GO 'CUSE!!
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
That's More Like it!
There is the Syracuse team that fans have been waiting all year to see! The Orange played with a purpose from the opening tip and never slowed up. The three seniors for the Orange, Nichols, Roberts, and Watkins, played with a purpose in their last game ever at the dome. Controlling Green and Hibbert inside was a big key to this game going in and the two big men for Syracuse did just that!
Another well balanced attack by the 'Cuse was the difference. Led by 22 points from the Big East player of the year...well at least in my opinion...Demetrius Nichols, 13 points from Andy 'Handy' Rautins, 11 points and a career high 11 assits from Eric 'Sparadic' Devendorf, and then 11 points and 6 rebounds from Paul 'The Bear' Harris this team was well balanced on both ends. Throw in the combined 15 points and 14 rebounds from Mookie and TRob and this team had one of its most balanced games of the year.
The difference in this game was the battle between one of the best shooting teams (at least field goal percentage wise) in the country, in the Hoyas, and one of the best field goal percentage defensive teams in the country in Syracuse. Which one would pervail? Was the question asked all night long by the announcers. I think the answer to this question was clear! The defense played by the Orange was tremendous! They were after every loose ball, crashing the boards, stepping in the lane, and on and on. This team played with a purpose and would not be denied that signature win they so desperately needed.
Now, with a win at Villanova on Saturday, the Orange can clinch at least a tie for fourth in the conference. The tie breaker would go to Notre Dame due to the head-to-head win against Syracuse. With a loss at Villanova Syracuse is still guaranteed the 5 seed and the 5-12 matchup with St. Johns most likely and then the matchup with Notre Dame in the quarters. So, this win was big on both fronts...a loss dropped them into a three way tie for fifth with one to play. Now, even if they lose on Saturday they are still guaranteed the 5 seed because of the tie breaker scenarios they would win with Marquette and West Virginia. A win on Saturday and a loss by Notre Dame at Rutgers and Syracuse pulls the impossible and gets the 4 seed!
Another thing worth a mention in this game is the play of Eric 'Sparadic' Devendorf as I call him. Some people say that he should not be running the point that maybe Paul Harris or Josh Wright should be running the point. Well, I would just like to say that this team will win or lose with Eric running the show! He is by far our best option at the point. He had 11 assists in last nights game...yes he did have 5 turnovers...but that is still more than a 2:1 assist:turnover ratio! Paul Harris is probably the best one on one player Syracuse has, but he is not the best man to run the point. Eric can use his left better than anyone I have seen and he also gets blocked more than anyone I have seen. However, he does so many things right that you have to live with the mistakes he makes. He will make three or four great plays and then come down and make a terrible play, but without him running the point, we don't get that 3:1 ratio! Let Harris post up the smaller guard inside and let Devo find the shooters. Keep in mind he is only a sophmore and is not a "true point guard." He is more of a 2 guard trying to fill a void that the Orange need him for. He is getting much better at this roll and once he becomes just a little bit less selfish...he has a scorers' mentality...this team will be doing great things! Devo is the best option at point and the best chance this team has of going somewhere in the post season!
Stats from the game:
Scoring:
Nichols: 22...Rautins: 13...Devo: 11...Harris: 11...Watkins: 9...Roberts: 6
Rebounds:
Watkins: 8...Roberts: 6...Harris: 6...Nichols and Rautins: 3...Devo...2...Burach and Gorman: 1
Assists:
Devo: 11...Watkins: 3...Nichols and Rautins: 1
Turnovers:
Devo: 5...Wright (in only 3 minutes), Harris, Rautins: 2...Nichols and Roberts: 1
Steals:
Nichols: 4...Roberts and Rautins: 2...Harris and Devo: 1
Blocks:
Watkins: 2...Nichols and Roberts: 1
Syracuse shot 43% from 3
Great win!
GO 'CUSE!!
Another well balanced attack by the 'Cuse was the difference. Led by 22 points from the Big East player of the year...well at least in my opinion...Demetrius Nichols, 13 points from Andy 'Handy' Rautins, 11 points and a career high 11 assits from Eric 'Sparadic' Devendorf, and then 11 points and 6 rebounds from Paul 'The Bear' Harris this team was well balanced on both ends. Throw in the combined 15 points and 14 rebounds from Mookie and TRob and this team had one of its most balanced games of the year.
The difference in this game was the battle between one of the best shooting teams (at least field goal percentage wise) in the country, in the Hoyas, and one of the best field goal percentage defensive teams in the country in Syracuse. Which one would pervail? Was the question asked all night long by the announcers. I think the answer to this question was clear! The defense played by the Orange was tremendous! They were after every loose ball, crashing the boards, stepping in the lane, and on and on. This team played with a purpose and would not be denied that signature win they so desperately needed.
Now, with a win at Villanova on Saturday, the Orange can clinch at least a tie for fourth in the conference. The tie breaker would go to Notre Dame due to the head-to-head win against Syracuse. With a loss at Villanova Syracuse is still guaranteed the 5 seed and the 5-12 matchup with St. Johns most likely and then the matchup with Notre Dame in the quarters. So, this win was big on both fronts...a loss dropped them into a three way tie for fifth with one to play. Now, even if they lose on Saturday they are still guaranteed the 5 seed because of the tie breaker scenarios they would win with Marquette and West Virginia. A win on Saturday and a loss by Notre Dame at Rutgers and Syracuse pulls the impossible and gets the 4 seed!
Another thing worth a mention in this game is the play of Eric 'Sparadic' Devendorf as I call him. Some people say that he should not be running the point that maybe Paul Harris or Josh Wright should be running the point. Well, I would just like to say that this team will win or lose with Eric running the show! He is by far our best option at the point. He had 11 assists in last nights game...yes he did have 5 turnovers...but that is still more than a 2:1 assist:turnover ratio! Paul Harris is probably the best one on one player Syracuse has, but he is not the best man to run the point. Eric can use his left better than anyone I have seen and he also gets blocked more than anyone I have seen. However, he does so many things right that you have to live with the mistakes he makes. He will make three or four great plays and then come down and make a terrible play, but without him running the point, we don't get that 3:1 ratio! Let Harris post up the smaller guard inside and let Devo find the shooters. Keep in mind he is only a sophmore and is not a "true point guard." He is more of a 2 guard trying to fill a void that the Orange need him for. He is getting much better at this roll and once he becomes just a little bit less selfish...he has a scorers' mentality...this team will be doing great things! Devo is the best option at point and the best chance this team has of going somewhere in the post season!
Stats from the game:
Scoring:
Nichols: 22...Rautins: 13...Devo: 11...Harris: 11...Watkins: 9...Roberts: 6
Rebounds:
Watkins: 8...Roberts: 6...Harris: 6...Nichols and Rautins: 3...Devo...2...Burach and Gorman: 1
Assists:
Devo: 11...Watkins: 3...Nichols and Rautins: 1
Turnovers:
Devo: 5...Wright (in only 3 minutes), Harris, Rautins: 2...Nichols and Roberts: 1
Steals:
Nichols: 4...Roberts and Rautins: 2...Harris and Devo: 1
Blocks:
Watkins: 2...Nichols and Roberts: 1
Syracuse shot 43% from 3
Great win!
GO 'CUSE!!
Monday, February 26, 2007
Weekend Results and Notes
Sorry for the lack of posts this weekend! I had some family issues that had to come first. I was even planning on doing my own mock bracket this weekend like that of Joe Lunardi's from ESPN. I never got around to doing that but I was able to watch a lot of basketball this weekend!
Let me start with the most important game...The Orange beating Providence at the Dunkin Donuts Center! Providence was 16-2 at home this year and Syracuse needed the win badly to keep their NCAA hopes alive. A well balanced attack by the Orange helped hold off the Friars and a great game from Herbert Hill. Hill was basically unstoppable inside and that was with Watkins having a great game against him! Just shows how great Hill has become in the last four years.
Nichols, though, had the most important shot of the game! With the score tied at 65-65 and 37 seconds on the clock then Orange ran a curl play for Nichols and he nailed the biggest shot of the year thus far for the Orange! Rautins had another big game with 19 points including an amazing tip in that was something I didn't expect. A well balanced attack is what the Orange has been winning with this year and this game was no different. Big win for the 'Cuse and it all but eliminated Providence.
Before I continue I would like to comment on the Gottlieb comments that he made after the Syracuse game saying how the Orange were still not in the tournament. I hate to say it, but I have to agree with him. I felt that the Orange would lose to Providence but then win their last two. I was wrong on the first count and I am hoping I am correct with the last two because then, as Gottlieb stated, the Orange would be in. Beating Providence at home should be taken more seriously though, Doug, the Friars were 16-2 at home, losing to Brown and Villanova! That is a pretty good record regardless of who they played! They had beated BC, Holy Cross, Marquette, and West Virginia at home...four pretty good wins. Plus, all the games that they should have won, except the Brown game. This was a big win for the Orange.
Something else that I heard as I was watching a lot of basketball this weekend. I don't remember what game I was watching, but it was one of the Big East games and they showed on the screen the "predictions" of who the announcers of the game thought were going to be in the tournament. These guys were even more ridiculuos than Doug Gottlieb. They had...Pitt, G'Town, ND, Marquette, Louisville, Villanova, and Depaul in the tournament! I'm sorry but I don't understand how Depaul and Villanova are better than Syracuse right now. Granted Depaul is on a roll, but if Syracuse hasn't beaten anyone lately then how can you say Depaul has?? Just boggles my mind how the "experts" put so much weight into the RPI. A team with a 7-7 record in the Big East should not be in over a 9-5 team who beat the 7-7 team head to head. I just don't understand it. But, if the Orange just keep winning then everything will take care of itself!
Other games of note this weekend: Georgetown beats Pitt meaning a win against the Orange tonight clinches at least a share of the regular season title for the Hoyas. Big win for the Hoyas. Louisville beat UConn yesterday meaning they are all but guaranteed in the tournament. ND wins at home against Marquette meaning if they win at Rutgers or if the Orange lose again, they get the 4 seed. Villanova won at home against Rutgers to go to 7-7 in the conference with games left at UConn and home for the Orange. Those were the only notable games of the weekend.
Big game tonight at the dome with the Hoyas coming to town. Hope the Dome is rockin' and ready to roll! A win and we are in in my opinion!!
Go 'Cuse!!
Let me start with the most important game...The Orange beating Providence at the Dunkin Donuts Center! Providence was 16-2 at home this year and Syracuse needed the win badly to keep their NCAA hopes alive. A well balanced attack by the Orange helped hold off the Friars and a great game from Herbert Hill. Hill was basically unstoppable inside and that was with Watkins having a great game against him! Just shows how great Hill has become in the last four years.
Nichols, though, had the most important shot of the game! With the score tied at 65-65 and 37 seconds on the clock then Orange ran a curl play for Nichols and he nailed the biggest shot of the year thus far for the Orange! Rautins had another big game with 19 points including an amazing tip in that was something I didn't expect. A well balanced attack is what the Orange has been winning with this year and this game was no different. Big win for the 'Cuse and it all but eliminated Providence.
Before I continue I would like to comment on the Gottlieb comments that he made after the Syracuse game saying how the Orange were still not in the tournament. I hate to say it, but I have to agree with him. I felt that the Orange would lose to Providence but then win their last two. I was wrong on the first count and I am hoping I am correct with the last two because then, as Gottlieb stated, the Orange would be in. Beating Providence at home should be taken more seriously though, Doug, the Friars were 16-2 at home, losing to Brown and Villanova! That is a pretty good record regardless of who they played! They had beated BC, Holy Cross, Marquette, and West Virginia at home...four pretty good wins. Plus, all the games that they should have won, except the Brown game. This was a big win for the Orange.
Something else that I heard as I was watching a lot of basketball this weekend. I don't remember what game I was watching, but it was one of the Big East games and they showed on the screen the "predictions" of who the announcers of the game thought were going to be in the tournament. These guys were even more ridiculuos than Doug Gottlieb. They had...Pitt, G'Town, ND, Marquette, Louisville, Villanova, and Depaul in the tournament! I'm sorry but I don't understand how Depaul and Villanova are better than Syracuse right now. Granted Depaul is on a roll, but if Syracuse hasn't beaten anyone lately then how can you say Depaul has?? Just boggles my mind how the "experts" put so much weight into the RPI. A team with a 7-7 record in the Big East should not be in over a 9-5 team who beat the 7-7 team head to head. I just don't understand it. But, if the Orange just keep winning then everything will take care of itself!
Other games of note this weekend: Georgetown beats Pitt meaning a win against the Orange tonight clinches at least a share of the regular season title for the Hoyas. Big win for the Hoyas. Louisville beat UConn yesterday meaning they are all but guaranteed in the tournament. ND wins at home against Marquette meaning if they win at Rutgers or if the Orange lose again, they get the 4 seed. Villanova won at home against Rutgers to go to 7-7 in the conference with games left at UConn and home for the Orange. Those were the only notable games of the weekend.
Big game tonight at the dome with the Hoyas coming to town. Hope the Dome is rockin' and ready to roll! A win and we are in in my opinion!!
Go 'Cuse!!
Friday, February 23, 2007
Why the RPI is worthless!
I have been a big fan of the RPI in the past as it can be a good barometer of how one team compares to another. However, the RPI is beginning to be useless when judging and coparing teams. I am going to look at teams that according to ESPN are on the "bubble." I am only going to look at teams in the mid-majors as I think these teams are the best evidence of how bad the RPI system has become.
Lets begin by looking at three teams from the MVC and the write-up that espn.com has on them in their bubble watch page:
Should be in:
Creighton [18-10 (12-5), RPI: 30, SOS: 29] The Bluejays have to come out of the lock category now after losing at Illinois State on Tuesday. I still think they'll get there, but with a nonconference slate devoid of very much to brag about, this makes the finale at home against Wichita State extremely important. The committee left out Missouri State last season after a 12-6 Valley finish, so it can happen. Creighton swept both Mo-State and Bradley, if that comes into play.
Work left to do:
Missouri State [19-9 (11-6), RPI: 32, SOS: 34] Very critical road win at Wichita State should help the computer numbers and creates some incredibly important separation from Bradley in the standings. The Bears should handle Drake in the season finale to get to 12-6. They were swept by Creighton, but swept Bradley and are a game ahead of the Braves (and have the marquee win over Wisconsin), so they're definitively third in the pecking order right now, in my opinion. Mo-State will need to win its quarterfinal game to feel better about things, but it's looking much better than it did 24 hours ago.
Bradley [18-11 (9-8), RPI: 39, SOS: 22] As big as Saturday was for the Braves, Tuesday was that bad. Losing at home to UNI probably condemns the Braves to the fourth spot in the Valley pecking order and I don't know if this league is getting four this season. The season-opening 20-point W over DePaul has lost punch and the Braves lost by 29 at Michigan State.
Looking at the RPI's of these three schools you see that they are very good RPI's...all below 40. Makes you think that these teams have great resumes right? Well you be the judge:
Creighton has beaten the following "good" teams: Xavier, Missouri St (twice), and Bradley (twice)...they have lost to the following teams: Nebraska, Dayton, Fresno St, Hawaii, Indiana St, Wichita St, Southern Ill (twice)...I will stop here! Lets throw out the Missouri St and Bradley wins because...well because I am including them in this article as well...That leaves Xavier as the only decent team they have beaten...Yet they have an RPI of 30 and a SOS of 29?? Read on to find out why...
Missouri State has beaten the following "good" teams: Wisconsin, Santa Clara, Bradley (twice), and Wichita St (twice)...They have lost to the following: Oklahoma St, Saint Louis, Creighton (twice), S. Illinois (twice), N. Iowa, Evansville, and Winthrop...Once again we will throw out Bradley and Wichita St and that leaves Wisconsin and Santa Clara as the only two "good" wins...Yet their RPI is 32 and SOS is 34?
I will skip Bradley because they lost to both teams above twice! If they can't beat them then how can they get in?
Now, the question to ask here is: how can these teams have such a high RPI and SOS when it appears they are not beating anyone? The answer is simple...because they play the likes of Wisconsin, Oklahoma St, Wichita St, Nebraska, and Xavier...the RPI is a formula that also takes into account the teams that these teams played. So, if you play a Wisconsin and beat them and then Wisconsin beats an Ohio State it makes your RPI go up. In other words, you just need to play one or two great teams and then hope they play three or four great teams and you are golden.
It is hard for me to figure out just how Creighton can have such a high RPI except that they beat Missouri St who beat Wisconsin. So, Creighton beat Wisconsin by association? This means that because Syracuse beat Marquette and Marquette beat Duke that Syracuse beat Duke?? From what I see, all the Orange needed to do was beat Wichita St or Oklahoma St and their RPI would be in the 30's. Because from what I see, all you have to do is beat someone who beat someone else who was in the top 10. I guess Creighton and Missouri St are winners by association according to the RPI.
Just for comparison here is what the Orange has done:
Beat the following "good" teams Marquette, Villanova, Hofstra, Holy Cross, (if the teams above can have Bradley as good wins then the Orange get Hoftsra and Holy Cross), and Depaul...Bad losses: every loss hurt! Win just one against Wichita St, Oklahoma St, Pitt, or Drexel and its a different story!
GO 'CUSE!!
Lets begin by looking at three teams from the MVC and the write-up that espn.com has on them in their bubble watch page:
Should be in:
Creighton [18-10 (12-5), RPI: 30, SOS: 29] The Bluejays have to come out of the lock category now after losing at Illinois State on Tuesday. I still think they'll get there, but with a nonconference slate devoid of very much to brag about, this makes the finale at home against Wichita State extremely important. The committee left out Missouri State last season after a 12-6 Valley finish, so it can happen. Creighton swept both Mo-State and Bradley, if that comes into play.
Work left to do:
Missouri State [19-9 (11-6), RPI: 32, SOS: 34] Very critical road win at Wichita State should help the computer numbers and creates some incredibly important separation from Bradley in the standings. The Bears should handle Drake in the season finale to get to 12-6. They were swept by Creighton, but swept Bradley and are a game ahead of the Braves (and have the marquee win over Wisconsin), so they're definitively third in the pecking order right now, in my opinion. Mo-State will need to win its quarterfinal game to feel better about things, but it's looking much better than it did 24 hours ago.
Bradley [18-11 (9-8), RPI: 39, SOS: 22] As big as Saturday was for the Braves, Tuesday was that bad. Losing at home to UNI probably condemns the Braves to the fourth spot in the Valley pecking order and I don't know if this league is getting four this season. The season-opening 20-point W over DePaul has lost punch and the Braves lost by 29 at Michigan State.
Looking at the RPI's of these three schools you see that they are very good RPI's...all below 40. Makes you think that these teams have great resumes right? Well you be the judge:
Creighton has beaten the following "good" teams: Xavier, Missouri St (twice), and Bradley (twice)...they have lost to the following teams: Nebraska, Dayton, Fresno St, Hawaii, Indiana St, Wichita St, Southern Ill (twice)...I will stop here! Lets throw out the Missouri St and Bradley wins because...well because I am including them in this article as well...That leaves Xavier as the only decent team they have beaten...Yet they have an RPI of 30 and a SOS of 29?? Read on to find out why...
Missouri State has beaten the following "good" teams: Wisconsin, Santa Clara, Bradley (twice), and Wichita St (twice)...They have lost to the following: Oklahoma St, Saint Louis, Creighton (twice), S. Illinois (twice), N. Iowa, Evansville, and Winthrop...Once again we will throw out Bradley and Wichita St and that leaves Wisconsin and Santa Clara as the only two "good" wins...Yet their RPI is 32 and SOS is 34?
I will skip Bradley because they lost to both teams above twice! If they can't beat them then how can they get in?
Now, the question to ask here is: how can these teams have such a high RPI and SOS when it appears they are not beating anyone? The answer is simple...because they play the likes of Wisconsin, Oklahoma St, Wichita St, Nebraska, and Xavier...the RPI is a formula that also takes into account the teams that these teams played. So, if you play a Wisconsin and beat them and then Wisconsin beats an Ohio State it makes your RPI go up. In other words, you just need to play one or two great teams and then hope they play three or four great teams and you are golden.
It is hard for me to figure out just how Creighton can have such a high RPI except that they beat Missouri St who beat Wisconsin. So, Creighton beat Wisconsin by association? This means that because Syracuse beat Marquette and Marquette beat Duke that Syracuse beat Duke?? From what I see, all the Orange needed to do was beat Wichita St or Oklahoma St and their RPI would be in the 30's. Because from what I see, all you have to do is beat someone who beat someone else who was in the top 10. I guess Creighton and Missouri St are winners by association according to the RPI.
Just for comparison here is what the Orange has done:
Beat the following "good" teams Marquette, Villanova, Hofstra, Holy Cross, (if the teams above can have Bradley as good wins then the Orange get Hoftsra and Holy Cross), and Depaul...Bad losses: every loss hurt! Win just one against Wichita St, Oklahoma St, Pitt, or Drexel and its a different story!
GO 'CUSE!!
Big weekend ahead!
The 'Cuse starts their final three game stretch tomorrow at the Dunkin Donuts Center against Providence. In order to make the field of 65 they must win at least two of the final three if one of those is against Georgetown. If they can win at Providence, which I predicted below that the Ornage would lose, then they return home to face Georgetown in what could be a huge game for both clubs!
Other games of interest to 'Cuse fans should be the Marquette/Notre Dame game and the Pittsburgh/Georgetown game. The Marquette/Notre Dame game is of interest because if Marquette can win in South Bend then it would drop Notre Dame to 6 losses. This would mean that if the Orange were to win out, in other words control their own destiny, then they would finish fourth and get a bye in the Big East tourney because the Orange hold the tie breaker over Marquette. If Notre Dame wins the game then Orange fans would need Rutgers to upset the Irish at the RAC in order to get the four seed.
The Pittsburgh/Georgetown game is of interest as well to Orange fans because if the Hoyas win at home then they could clinch at least a share of the Big East title with a win at the dome. Wouldn't it be something if Georgetown had to beat the Orange in their own building to clinch the title? That would be a huge game for both teams and the dome best be rocking. But first, the 'Cuse must survive the Friars in Providence where they are 16-2 at home.
Another game I think you all should check out is my alma mater on ESPN2 at 11 am tomorrow morning! The Marist Red Foxes, the school that Louie McCrosky transfered to, are going for the regular season MAAC title for the first time in awhile. They haven't made the tournament since Rik Smits was at the school and I will be at this game cheering on my alma mater! Marist is led by senior point guard Jared Jordan who is vying to be the first player since Avery Johnson to lead the nation in assists two years in a row. He is a stud who some say is the best pure point guard in the country. If you want something to watch other than the Duke sided College Gameday crew then turn on ESPN2 at 11 and watch Marist!
GO 'CUSE!!
Other games of interest to 'Cuse fans should be the Marquette/Notre Dame game and the Pittsburgh/Georgetown game. The Marquette/Notre Dame game is of interest because if Marquette can win in South Bend then it would drop Notre Dame to 6 losses. This would mean that if the Orange were to win out, in other words control their own destiny, then they would finish fourth and get a bye in the Big East tourney because the Orange hold the tie breaker over Marquette. If Notre Dame wins the game then Orange fans would need Rutgers to upset the Irish at the RAC in order to get the four seed.
The Pittsburgh/Georgetown game is of interest as well to Orange fans because if the Hoyas win at home then they could clinch at least a share of the Big East title with a win at the dome. Wouldn't it be something if Georgetown had to beat the Orange in their own building to clinch the title? That would be a huge game for both teams and the dome best be rocking. But first, the 'Cuse must survive the Friars in Providence where they are 16-2 at home.
Another game I think you all should check out is my alma mater on ESPN2 at 11 am tomorrow morning! The Marist Red Foxes, the school that Louie McCrosky transfered to, are going for the regular season MAAC title for the first time in awhile. They haven't made the tournament since Rik Smits was at the school and I will be at this game cheering on my alma mater! Marist is led by senior point guard Jared Jordan who is vying to be the first player since Avery Johnson to lead the nation in assists two years in a row. He is a stud who some say is the best pure point guard in the country. If you want something to watch other than the Duke sided College Gameday crew then turn on ESPN2 at 11 and watch Marist!
GO 'CUSE!!
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
What a mess in the standings!
Notre Dame just crushed Depaul last night and Providence improved to 16-2 at home in their win against West Virginia. This leaves a big mess in the standings. With the win, it puts Notre Dame in a tie with Marquette at 9-5 for fourth place. These two teams meet on Saturday in what could be a battle for the last spot to get a bye in the Big East Tourney. Syracuse is now a half game back at 8-5 and with a win against Providence and a Marquette win against Notre Dame Saturday, Syracuse would be in fourth place! Depaul is probably out of the NCAA tournament now with the loss and would need to probably at least make the finals of the Big East Tournament to have a shot.
With the win against West Virginia, Providence is now creeping back into the bubble picture. With a home game against Syracuse and then two winnable road games at South Florida and at St Johns, Providence has a chance to run the table and get to 10-6. One more loss in any of these three will probably mean they would have to get to the Big East Tournament finals for a chance. West Virginia was feeling pretty confident about making the tournament before this loss and now they have to be sweating just a little bit. I still feel they have done enough to get in but a blowout loss at Pitt or a loss at home to Cincy would mean they would have to go on a run in the tournament. Still, I feel like West Virginia will be in.
I am still sticking with my predictions in a post below: I feel Georgetown, Pitt, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and West Virginia will all be in the NCAA tourney. Louisville has the easiest remaining schedule and if Syracuse finishes fourth in the conference how can you leave them out? Espn.com brought up a good point on how intriquing a matchup it would be to see Syracuse face West Virginia to see who deserves the spot if they should only get 6 teams in. Well, they do not face each other during the regular season but a win at Providence on Saturday for the Orange would be something West Virginia couldn't do 4 days earlier.
Stay tuned for a wild finish in the best conference in the land. On tap tonight: Georgetown @ Cincinnati, St. Johns @ Louisville, and UConn @ Rutgers.
UConn has games left against Louisville, Villanova, and Georgetown so they need to win against Rutgers because 10 losses and you are not going to NY City.
GO CUSE!!
With the win against West Virginia, Providence is now creeping back into the bubble picture. With a home game against Syracuse and then two winnable road games at South Florida and at St Johns, Providence has a chance to run the table and get to 10-6. One more loss in any of these three will probably mean they would have to get to the Big East Tournament finals for a chance. West Virginia was feeling pretty confident about making the tournament before this loss and now they have to be sweating just a little bit. I still feel they have done enough to get in but a blowout loss at Pitt or a loss at home to Cincy would mean they would have to go on a run in the tournament. Still, I feel like West Virginia will be in.
I am still sticking with my predictions in a post below: I feel Georgetown, Pitt, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and West Virginia will all be in the NCAA tourney. Louisville has the easiest remaining schedule and if Syracuse finishes fourth in the conference how can you leave them out? Espn.com brought up a good point on how intriquing a matchup it would be to see Syracuse face West Virginia to see who deserves the spot if they should only get 6 teams in. Well, they do not face each other during the regular season but a win at Providence on Saturday for the Orange would be something West Virginia couldn't do 4 days earlier.
Stay tuned for a wild finish in the best conference in the land. On tap tonight: Georgetown @ Cincinnati, St. Johns @ Louisville, and UConn @ Rutgers.
UConn has games left against Louisville, Villanova, and Georgetown so they need to win against Rutgers because 10 losses and you are not going to NY City.
GO CUSE!!
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
Why is 'Nova in and 'Cuse out?
There has been some heavy chatter going on amongst my friends and SU fans alike about the possibility of Villanova getting to the NCAA tourney over the Orange. From what I see, it is absurd to think that the Wildcats can be in ahead of Syracuse.
Recently a bunch of writers got together and did a "mock tournament" that the NCAA committee set up. One of the biggest points that was noted by most writers coming out of the night was how little they used the rpi. The rpi was only used when trying to decide between two teams who didn't play each other and had very little common opponents. The main point that was emphasized was how teams were compared based on how well they would do against each other. For example, if you have Drexel, Creighton, and Holy Cross on the "bubble" then you would compare those three teams and rate them from one to three. If the committee decides that only one of the three should get in then only the team rated one is in...Probably Drexel in this case.
Now, what I don't understand is how people like Joe Lunardi who does the ESPN Bracketology, do not take into account what their peers learned during the mock tournament. I'm going to take Villanova, Depaul, Syracuse, and West Virginia as four bubble teams in the BE. If you check my post below you will see my predictions on final records and NCAA tourney teams. Now, I, just like most people in the country, feel that the BE will get 7 bids this year. Throwing out teams that should be in...GTown, Pitt, and Marquette...and then adding L'Ville and ND to the mix of teams probably in...especially since L'Ville has an easy schedule remaining. This leaves us with 4 teams vying for what I feel are two spots.
If you go by what the NCAA committee says they go by, then you will match up each team on the bubble and decide who would win. Pretty simple scenario. Throw out the RPI when comparing teams in the same conference as they usually play each other and most of the same teams. This means the 4 teams mentioned above should be compared against each other and then compare the best teams against other bubble teams. Don't compare Villanova and Depaul against teams like Maryland, Clemson, and Gonzaga. You should compare the best of these four against the best of what is left. If this is the case, and it should be the case, then if you compare these four "bubble" teams based on head-to-head competition then who do you throw out first? VILLANOVA! They have lost to Depaul, West Virginia, and Syracuse. If they lose to Syracuse again then that would mean they would be 0-4 against the BE bubble teams and if you can't beat teams on the bubble in your own conference then why should you deserve a shot against other teams?
This leaves us with Depaul, WV, and Syracuse. Depaul has also lost to both WV and Syracuse so they would be 0-2 against these teams. This leaves WV and Syracuse as the two teams left on the bubble. This would be an interesting debate as to who would win this matchup since they don't play each other. But, if you are saying 7 BE teams get in...which the committee says they don't look at how many teams from each conference get in...then both teams would make it.
What I am trying to say is that in no way shape or form is what Villanova done better than what Syracuse has done. The only teams Syracuse lost to that will not be in the tournment are St. Johns and UConn. Drexel, Oklahoma St, Wichita St, Pitt, ND, and L'Ville all have a shot at making the tournament. Villanova couln't beat Syracuse so how can they be in ahead of them at this point? Only time will tell how the selection committee decides, as these two teams meet to end the regular season in what could be a winner take all game.
Check out my updated BE records through last nights Marquette win on the left hand side. Since making my predictions below I have only missed one game, so the final standing I predicted are looking good right now!
GO CUSE!!
Recently a bunch of writers got together and did a "mock tournament" that the NCAA committee set up. One of the biggest points that was noted by most writers coming out of the night was how little they used the rpi. The rpi was only used when trying to decide between two teams who didn't play each other and had very little common opponents. The main point that was emphasized was how teams were compared based on how well they would do against each other. For example, if you have Drexel, Creighton, and Holy Cross on the "bubble" then you would compare those three teams and rate them from one to three. If the committee decides that only one of the three should get in then only the team rated one is in...Probably Drexel in this case.
Now, what I don't understand is how people like Joe Lunardi who does the ESPN Bracketology, do not take into account what their peers learned during the mock tournament. I'm going to take Villanova, Depaul, Syracuse, and West Virginia as four bubble teams in the BE. If you check my post below you will see my predictions on final records and NCAA tourney teams. Now, I, just like most people in the country, feel that the BE will get 7 bids this year. Throwing out teams that should be in...GTown, Pitt, and Marquette...and then adding L'Ville and ND to the mix of teams probably in...especially since L'Ville has an easy schedule remaining. This leaves us with 4 teams vying for what I feel are two spots.
If you go by what the NCAA committee says they go by, then you will match up each team on the bubble and decide who would win. Pretty simple scenario. Throw out the RPI when comparing teams in the same conference as they usually play each other and most of the same teams. This means the 4 teams mentioned above should be compared against each other and then compare the best teams against other bubble teams. Don't compare Villanova and Depaul against teams like Maryland, Clemson, and Gonzaga. You should compare the best of these four against the best of what is left. If this is the case, and it should be the case, then if you compare these four "bubble" teams based on head-to-head competition then who do you throw out first? VILLANOVA! They have lost to Depaul, West Virginia, and Syracuse. If they lose to Syracuse again then that would mean they would be 0-4 against the BE bubble teams and if you can't beat teams on the bubble in your own conference then why should you deserve a shot against other teams?
This leaves us with Depaul, WV, and Syracuse. Depaul has also lost to both WV and Syracuse so they would be 0-2 against these teams. This leaves WV and Syracuse as the two teams left on the bubble. This would be an interesting debate as to who would win this matchup since they don't play each other. But, if you are saying 7 BE teams get in...which the committee says they don't look at how many teams from each conference get in...then both teams would make it.
What I am trying to say is that in no way shape or form is what Villanova done better than what Syracuse has done. The only teams Syracuse lost to that will not be in the tournment are St. Johns and UConn. Drexel, Oklahoma St, Wichita St, Pitt, ND, and L'Ville all have a shot at making the tournament. Villanova couln't beat Syracuse so how can they be in ahead of them at this point? Only time will tell how the selection committee decides, as these two teams meet to end the regular season in what could be a winner take all game.
Check out my updated BE records through last nights Marquette win on the left hand side. Since making my predictions below I have only missed one game, so the final standing I predicted are looking good right now!
GO CUSE!!
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